The Poll.ai

Connectivity report · 2025 week 2

Nobody knows anything yet. Here is exactly how much.

The poll opens in Week 5. That date was published before the season and does not move. This is week 2, and what follows is a description of what is not yet knowable.

Every other poll is publishing a top 25 this week. It is built from reputation, because there is nothing else to build it from yet. This page is the alternative: a measurement of how little the schedule has told the model, published in the open, with the date the real poll opens fixed in advance.

The schedule graph

Abilene ChristianAdrianAir ForceAkronAlabamaAlabama A&MAlabama StateAlcorn StateAllenAmerican InternationalApp StateArizonaArizona StateArkansasArkansas StateArkansas-Pine BluffArmyAuburnAustin PeayBYUBall StateBaylorBethune-CookmanBoise StateBoston CollegeBowling GreenBryantBucknellBuffaloButlerCal PolyCaliforniaCampbellCentral ArkansasCentral ConnecticutCentral MichiganCentral WashingtonChadron StCharleston SouthernCharlotteChattanoogaCincinnatiClemsonCoastal CarolinaColgateColoradoColorado StateCumberland (TN)DavidsonDaytonDelawareDelaware StateDrakeDukeDuquesneEast CarolinaEast Tennessee StateEast Texas A&MEastern IllinoisEastern KentuckyEastern MichiganEastern WashingtonElizabeth City StateElonFerrumFloridaFlorida A&MFlorida AtlanticFlorida InternationalFlorida StateFordhamFresno StateFurmanGardner-WebbGeorgetownGeorgiaGeorgia SouthernGeorgia StateGeorgia TechGramblingHamptonHawai'iHoly CrossHoustonHouston ChristianHowardIdahoIdaho StateIllinoisIllinois StateIncarnate WordIndianaIndiana StateIowaIowa StateJackson StateJacksonville StateJames MadisonKansasKansas StateKennesaw StateKent StateKentuckyLSULafayetteLamarLangston UniversityLehighLibertyLincoln (PA)LindenwoodLittle RockLong Island UniversityLouisianaLouisiana CollegeLouisiana TechLouisvilleMaineMaristMarshallMarylandMassachusettsMcKendreeMcNeeseMemphisMercerMercyhurstMerrimackMiamiMiami (OH)MichiganMichigan StateMiddle TennesseeMinnesotaMississippi StateMississippi Valley StateMissouriMissouri StateMonmouthMontanaMontana StateMorehead StateMorgan StateMurray StateNC StateNavyNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew HavenNew MexicoNew Mexico StateNichollsNorfolk StateNorth AlabamaNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina A&TNorth Carolina CentralNorth DakotaNorth Dakota StateNorth TexasNorthern ArizonaNorthern ColoradoNorthern IllinoisNorthern IowaNorthwesternNorthwestern StateNotre DameOhioOhio StateOklahomaOklahoma StateOld DominionOle MissOregonOregon StatePenn StatePittsburghPortland StatePrairie View A&MPresbyterianPurdueRhode IslandRiceRichmondRobert MorrisRutgersSE LouisianaSMUSacramento StateSacred HeartSam HoustonSamfordSan DiegoSan Diego StateSan José StateSouth AlabamaSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina StateSouth DakotaSouth Dakota StateSouth FloridaSoutheast Missouri StateSouthernSouthern IllinoisSouthern MissSouthern UtahSt. AnselmSt. Francis (PA)St. Thomas (MN)StanfordStephen F. AustinStetsonStonehillStony BrookSul Ross StateSyracuseTCUTarleton StateTempleTennesseeTennessee StateTennessee TechTexasTexas A&MTexas SouthernTexas StateTexas TechThe CitadelThomas More CollegeToledoTowsonTroyTruman StateTulaneTulsaUABUAlbanyUC DavisUCFUCLAUConnUL MonroeUNLVUSCUT MartinUT Rio Grande ValleyUTEPUTSAUpper Iowa UniversityUtahUtah StateUtah TechVMIValparaisoVanderbiltVillanovaVirginiaVirginia StVirginia TechVirginia University Of LynchburgWagnerWake ForestWarner UniversityWashingtonWashington StateWebber InternationalWeber StateWest GeorgiaWest VirginiaWestern CarolinaWestern IllinoisWestern KentuckyWestern MichiganWilliam & MaryWisconsinWoffordWyomingYoungstown State
Every team in the fit is a node; every game played through week 2 is an edge. Teams in different components have no chain of results connecting them at all. Not through a common opponent, not through anyone’s common opponent, not at any length. Right now the field is in 10 pieces, sized 113 · 51 · 48 · 35 · 13 · 9 · 3 · 3 · 2 · 2. The largest holds 113 teams; nothing in the others is comparable to them by any chain of results. Watching this knit together, week by week, is the content.

Diagnostics

teams in the fitEvery team with at least one game against an FBS or FCS opponent.279
games played272
connected componentsSeparate islands of the schedule graph. Two teams in different components have no chain of results connecting them at all, at any length.10
largest componentShare of the field that is mutually comparable through played games.113 teams (40.5%)
bridge gamesSingle games whose removal would split the graph in two, each holding at least two teams on. Every rating on the far side rests on that one result.217
fitted λ₂ (results core)Chosen by cross-validation every week. λ is a ratio of variances, a statement about how much the model does not know, containing no team-specific information whatsoever. It is large when the data is thin and falls as the season accumulates. Regularization stays a statement about variance and never becomes a reputation prior.2.000
median 90% rank-interval widthOut of 136 ranked teams, from 1,000 replays of this exact schedule. This is the number that says whether the season has settled.114 places
teams whose interval spans the league90% interval at least 90% as wide as the whole field.24
teams no closer than three hops to the top tenThey have not played a top-ten team and share no opponent with one. Their position relative to the top of the poll is an extrapolation.229

These are the measures for the weeks before the poll opens, published whether or not they are flattering. The one worth understanding is the penalty the model puts on itself: chosen fresh every week by testing, identical for every team, and carrying nothing about any particular one. Pulling an unknown team toward the middle is a statement about the model’s own ignorance, which is why it can produce a number in week 2 without being told which conferences are supposed to be good.

Bridge games

A bridge is a game whose removal would split the graph in two. Every rating on the far side of one rests on that single result, rather than on a body of evidence, on one Saturday afternoon. There are 217 of them holding at least two teams on right now, and these are the 12 carrying the most weight.

  • Stanford at Hawai'i (week 1). Hawai'i against Stanford is the only game linking 56 teams to the other 57. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Stanford at BYU (week 2). BYU against Stanford is the only game linking 56 teams to the other 57. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Portland State at BYU (week 1). BYU against Portland State is the only game linking 55 teams to the other 58. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Sam Houston at Hawai'i (week 2). Hawai'i against Sam Houston is the only game linking 48 teams to the other 65. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Sam Houston at Western Kentucky (week 1). Western Kentucky against Sam Houston is the only game linking 34 teams to the other 79. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • North Alabama at Western Kentucky (week 1). Western Kentucky against North Alabama is the only game linking 25 teams to the other 88. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • North Alabama at Southeast Missouri State (week 2). Southeast Missouri State against North Alabama is the only game linking 24 teams to the other 89. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Incarnate Word at Nicholls (week 1). Nicholls against Incarnate Word is the only game linking 24 teams to the other 27. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State (week 1). Arkansas State against Southeast Missouri State is the only game linking 23 teams to the other 90. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Eastern Washington at Incarnate Word (week 1). Incarnate Word against Eastern Washington is the only game linking 23 teams to the other 28. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Arkansas State at Arkansas (week 2). Arkansas against Arkansas State is the only game linking 22 teams to the other 91. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Fresno State at Kansas (week 1). Kansas against Fresno State is the only game linking 22 teams to the other 26. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.

What would have to be true

The field is in 10 separate pieces. 113 teams are mutually comparable through played games; the other 166 are not comparable to them at all yet, and no amount of arithmetic changes that.

Eastern Michigan at Kentucky, week 3: the first game on the schedule that would connect a group of 51 to the group of 113. It is worth more to this poll than its TV slot suggests.

Wisconsin at Alabama, week 3: the first game on the schedule that would connect a group of 48 to the group of 113. It is worth more to this poll than its TV slot suggests.

Georgia at Tennessee, week 3: the first game on the schedule that would connect a group of 48 to the group of 51. It is worth more to this poll than its TV slot suggests.

Hawai'i against Stanford is the only game linking 56 teams to the other 57. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.

gameweekaway’s grouphome’s group
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky351113
Wisconsin at Alabama348113
Georgia at Tennessee34851
Houston Christian at Nebraska311335
William & Mary at Virginia35135
Lafayette at Georgetown33548
Alcorn State at Mississippi State311313
Texas State at Arizona State35113
App State at Southern Miss33513
Central Michigan at Michigan39113
UTEP at Texas3519
Ohio at Ohio State3489

Every one of these is worth more to this poll than its television slot suggests. They are the games that turn two separate islands of results into one comparable field, and no ranking that exists today will tell you which they are.

The provisional table

The estimator runs from week 1. The headline poll does not. What is behind this click is real output from the real model on the real schedule, and it is not the poll. It is labelled provisional on every row, on purpose, because the difference between computing something and being willing to publish it as a ranking is the entire point of this page.

Show the provisional table: 136 teams, ranked by schedule oddsPROVISIONAL. THE POLL OPENS IN WEEK 5. SEE docs/constraints.md.
ProvisionalPROVISIONAL. THE POLL OPENS IN WEEK 5. SEE docs/constraints.md.
#teamunderline: 90% rank interval · league median width 113.5how unlikely1 in this many
1CaliforniaACC2-0·Power -1.81 (81)·Gap +61.81·▼39Ranked 1. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 56 and 134 of 136 in 90% of them.0.9621 in 9
2South FloridaAmerican Athletic2-0·Power -5.34 (116)·Gap +65.34·▼1Ranked 2. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 12 and 127 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6871 in 5
3IllinoisBig Ten2-0·Power -4.03 (104)·Gap +64.03·▼11Ranked 3. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 17 and 133 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6771 in 5
4TempleAmerican Athletic2-0·Power -0.17 (64)·Gap +60.17·▼67Ranked 4. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 31 and 133 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6731 in 5
5UNLVMountain West3-0·Power -6.65 (122)·Gap +66.65·▼23Ranked 5. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 48 and 136 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6681 in 5
6Texas StateSun Belt2-0·Power -7.07 (125)·Gap +67.07·▼9Ranked 6. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 29 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6651 in 5
7MemphisAmerican Athletic2-0·Power -1.08 (76)·Gap +61.08·▼42Ranked 7. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 24 and 132 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6311 in 4
8UtahBig 122-0·Power -5.79 (118)·Gap +65.79·▼18Ranked 8. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 22 and 127 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6211 in 4
9App StateSun Belt2-0·Power 3.89 (34)·Gap +56.11·▼49Ranked 9. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 34 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.6041 in 4
10HoustonBig 122-0·Power -8.29 (130)·Gap +68.29·▼10Ranked 10. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 15 and 130 of 136 in 90% of them.0.5961 in 4
11TulaneAmerican Athletic2-0·Power -7.64 (127)·Gap +67.64·▼10Ranked 11. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 17 and 129 of 136 in 90% of them.0.5721 in 4
12Ole MissSEC2-0·Power -3.23 (99)·Gap +63.23·▼4Ranked 12. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 14 and 134 of 136 in 90% of them.0.5581 in 4
13Iowa StateBig 123-0·Power -4.55 (109)·Gap +64.55·▲12Ranked 13. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 24 and 133 of 136 in 90% of them.0.5261 in 3
14VanderbiltSEC2-0·Power 8.26 (15)·Gap +51.74·▼20Ranked 14. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 20 and 130 of 136 in 90% of them.0.5131 in 3
15WyomingMountain West2-0·Power -3.08 (97)·Gap +63.08·▼30Ranked 15. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 23 and 132 of 136 in 90% of them.0.5041 in 3
16Mississippi StateSEC2-0·Power -4.59 (110)·Gap +64.59·▲6Ranked 16. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 17 and 129 of 136 in 90% of them.0.4811 in 3
17AuburnSEC2-0·Power -5.94 (119)·Gap +65.94·▼5Ranked 17. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 11 and 132 of 136 in 90% of them.0.4581 in 3
18Georgia TechACC2-0·Power -2.74 (93)·Gap +62.74·▼9Ranked 18. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 10 and 126 of 136 in 90% of them.0.4481 in 3
19LSUSEC2-0·Power -14.17 (136)·Gap +74.17·▲13Ranked 19. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 26 and 129 of 136 in 90% of them.0.4191 in 3
20North TexasAmerican Athletic2-0·Power 5.59 (29)·Gap +54.41·▲9Ranked 20. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 15 and 129 of 136 in 90% of them.0.3891 in 2
21Fresno StateMountain West2-1·Power -11.41 (133)·Gap +32.35·▼36Ranked 21. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 48 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.3531 in 2
22South CarolinaSEC2-0·Power -1.98 (82)·Gap +61.98·▼9Ranked 22. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 36 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.3521 in 2
23Florida StateACC2-0·Power 7.94 (18)·Gap +52.06·▲16Ranked 23. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 15 and 128 of 136 in 90% of them.0.3061 in 2
24NebraskaBig Ten2-0·Power -2.69 (91)·Gap +62.69·▲5Ranked 24. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 18 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.3001 in 2
25TCUBig 121-0·Power -0.40 (67)·Gap +60.40·▼19Ranked 25. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 12 and 122 of 136 in 90% of them.0.2901 in 2

Top 25 of 136. The full table, the résumé column, the schedule receipts and the sort controls arrive with the week 5 launch.

How this works, and where it is weak →

run e524ef50 · published 2026-08-19 23:10:51 UTC · code e215160 · config 1ef7cf23…
q_ref 6.30 (Troy) · β_w 7 · C 32 · h 12.433 · σ 23.062 · λ₁ 125 · λ₂ 2.0 · k 94.33 · w₁ 1.0348 · w₂ -1.8795
reproduce: uv run cfbpoll rank --season 2025 --through-week 2 --out out/