The Poll.ai

Connectivity report · 2025 week 1

Nobody knows anything yet. Here is exactly how much.

The poll opens in Week 5. That date was published before the season and does not move. This is week 1, and what follows is a description of what is not yet knowable.

Every other poll is publishing a top 25 this week. It is built from reputation, because there is nothing else to build it from yet. This page is the alternative: a measurement of how little the schedule has told the model, published in the open, with the date the real poll opens fixed in advance.

The schedule graph

Abilene ChristianAir ForceAkronAlabamaAlabama A&MAlabama StateAlcorn StateAllenApp StateArizonaArizona StateArkansasArkansas StateArkansas-Pine BluffArmyAuburnAustin PeayBYUBall StateBaylorBethune-CookmanBoise StateBoston CollegeBowling GreenBryantBucknellBuffaloButlerCal PolyCaliforniaCampbellCentral ArkansasCentral ConnecticutCentral MichiganChadron StCharleston SouthernCharlotteChattanoogaCincinnatiClemsonCoastal CarolinaColgateColoradoColorado StateCumberland (TN)DavidsonDaytonDelawareDelaware StateDrakeDukeDuquesneEast CarolinaEast Tennessee StateEast Texas A&MEastern IllinoisEastern KentuckyEastern MichiganEastern WashingtonElonFloridaFlorida A&MFlorida AtlanticFlorida InternationalFlorida StateFordhamFresno StateFurmanGardner-WebbGeorgetownGeorgiaGeorgia SouthernGeorgia StateGeorgia TechGramblingHamptonHawai'iHoly CrossHoustonHouston ChristianHowardIdahoIdaho StateIllinoisIllinois StateIncarnate WordIndianaIndiana StateIowaIowa StateJackson StateJacksonville StateJames MadisonKansasKansas StateKennesaw StateKent StateKentuckyLSULafayetteLamarLangston UniversityLehighLibertyLindenwoodLittle RockLong Island UniversityLouisianaLouisiana CollegeLouisiana TechLouisvilleMaineMaristMarshallMarylandMassachusettsMcKendreeMcNeeseMemphisMercerMercyhurstMerrimackMiamiMiami (OH)MichiganMichigan StateMiddle TennesseeMinnesotaMississippi StateMississippi Valley StateMissouriMissouri StateMonmouthMontana StateMorehead StateMorgan StateMurray StateNC StateNavyNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew HavenNew MexicoNew Mexico StateNichollsNorfolk StateNorth AlabamaNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina A&TNorth Carolina CentralNorth DakotaNorth Dakota StateNorth TexasNorthern ArizonaNorthern ColoradoNorthern IllinoisNorthern IowaNorthwesternNorthwestern StateNotre DameOhioOhio StateOklahomaOklahoma StateOld DominionOle MissOregonOregon StatePenn StatePittsburghPortland StatePrairie View A&MPresbyterianPurdueRhode IslandRiceRichmondRobert MorrisRutgersSE LouisianaSMUSacramento StateSacred HeartSam HoustonSamfordSan DiegoSan Diego StateSan José StateSouth AlabamaSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina StateSouth DakotaSouth Dakota StateSouth FloridaSoutheast Missouri StateSouthernSouthern IllinoisSouthern MissSouthern UtahSt. Francis (PA)St. Thomas (MN)StanfordStephen F. AustinStetsonStonehillStony BrookSul Ross StateSyracuseTCUTarleton StateTempleTennesseeTennessee StateTennessee TechTexasTexas A&MTexas SouthernTexas StateTexas TechThe CitadelThomas More CollegeToledoTowsonTroyTulaneTulsaUABUAlbanyUC DavisUCFUCLAUConnUL MonroeUNLVUSCUT MartinUT Rio Grande ValleyUTEPUTSAUpper Iowa UniversityUtahUtah StateUtah TechVMIValparaisoVanderbiltVirginiaVirginia TechVirginia University Of LynchburgWagnerWake ForestWashingtonWashington StateWebber InternationalWeber StateWest GeorgiaWest VirginiaWestern CarolinaWestern IllinoisWestern KentuckyWestern MichiganWilliam & MaryWisconsinWoffordWyomingYoungstown State
Every team in the fit is a node; every game played through week 1 is an edge. Teams in different components have no chain of results connecting them at all. Not through a common opponent, not through anyone’s common opponent, not at any length. Right now the field is in 126 pieces, sized 6 · 4 · 4 · 4 · 4 · 4 · 3 · 2 · and 118 more, none larger than 2. The largest holds 6 teams; nothing in the others is comparable to them by any chain of results. Watching this knit together, week by week, is the content.

Diagnostics

teams in the fitEvery team with at least one game against an FBS or FCS opponent.267
games played141
connected componentsSeparate islands of the schedule graph. Two teams in different components have no chain of results connecting them at all, at any length.126
largest componentShare of the field that is mutually comparable through played games.6 teams (2.2%)
bridge gamesSingle games whose removal would split the graph in two, each holding at least two teams on. Every rating on the far side rests on that one result.8
fitted λ₂ (results core)Chosen by cross-validation every week. λ is a ratio of variances, a statement about how much the model does not know, containing no team-specific information whatsoever. It is large when the data is thin and falls as the season accumulates. Regularization stays a statement about variance and never becomes a reputation prior.8.000
median 90% rank-interval widthOut of 136 ranked teams, from 1,000 replays of this exact schedule. This is the number that says whether the season has settled.52 places
teams whose interval spans the league90% interval at least 90% as wide as the whole field.2
teams no closer than three hops to the top tenThey have not played a top-ten team and share no opponent with one. Their position relative to the top of the poll is an extrapolation.245

These are the measures for the weeks before the poll opens, published whether or not they are flattering. The one worth understanding is the penalty the model puts on itself: chosen fresh every week by testing, identical for every team, and carrying nothing about any particular one. Pulling an unknown team toward the middle is a statement about the model’s own ignorance, which is why it can produce a number in week 2 without being told which conferences are supposed to be good.

Bridge games

A bridge is a game whose removal would split the graph in two. Every rating on the far side of one rests on that single result, rather than on a body of evidence, on one Saturday afternoon. There are 8 of them holding at least two teams on right now.

  • UNLV at Sam Houston (week 1). Sam Houston against UNLV is the only game linking 3 teams to the other 3. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Iowa State at Kansas State (week 1). Kansas State against Iowa State is the only game linking 2 teams to the other 2. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Fresno State at Kansas (week 1). Kansas against Fresno State is the only game linking 2 teams to the other 2. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Sam Houston at Western Kentucky (week 1). Western Kentucky against Sam Houston is the only game linking 2 teams to the other 4. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Idaho State at UNLV (week 1). UNLV against Idaho State is the only game linking 2 teams to the other 4. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Tarleton State at Portland State (week 1). Portland State against Tarleton State is the only game linking 2 teams to the other 2. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • North Carolina Central at Southern (week 1). Southern against North Carolina Central is the only game linking 2 teams to the other 2. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.
  • Incarnate Word at Nicholls (week 1). Nicholls against Incarnate Word is the only game linking 2 teams to the other 2. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.

What would have to be true

The field is in 126 separate pieces. 6 teams are mutually comparable through played games; the other 261 are not comparable to them at all yet, and no amount of arithmetic changes that.

Army at Kansas State, week 2: the first game on the schedule that would connect a group of 4 to the group of 4. It is worth more to this poll than its TV slot suggests.

Mississippi Valley State at Tarleton State, week 2: the first game on the schedule that would connect a group of 4 to the group of 4. It is worth more to this poll than its TV slot suggests.

Sam Houston at Hawai'i, week 2: the first game on the schedule that would connect a group of 3 to the group of 6. It is worth more to this poll than its TV slot suggests.

Sam Houston against UNLV is the only game linking 3 teams to the other 3. Undo that one result and the graph splits in two.

gameweekaway’s grouphome’s group
Army at Kansas State244
Mississippi Valley State at Tarleton State244
Sam Houston at Hawai'i263
Stanford at BYU234
UCLA at UNLV226
Western Kentucky at Toledo262
Idaho State at New Mexico262
North Alabama at Southeast Missouri State262
Southern Utah at San Diego262
Kansas at Missouri242
Georgia Southern at USC242
Iowa at Iowa State224

Every one of these is worth more to this poll than its television slot suggests. They are the games that turn two separate islands of results into one comparable field, and no ranking that exists today will tell you which they are.

The provisional table

The estimator runs from week 1. The headline poll does not. What is behind this click is real output from the real model on the real schedule, and it is not the poll. It is labelled provisional on every row, on purpose, because the difference between computing something and being willing to publish it as a ranking is the entire point of this page.

Show the provisional table: 136 teams, ranked by schedule oddsPROVISIONAL. THE POLL OPENS IN WEEK 5. SEE docs/constraints.md.
ProvisionalPROVISIONAL. THE POLL OPENS IN WEEK 5. SEE docs/constraints.md.
#teamunderline: 90% rank interval · league median width 52how unlikely1 in this many
1Central MichiganMid-American1-0·Power 12.25 (19)·Gap +47.75·▼33Ranked 1. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 2 and 118 of 136 in 90% of them.0.1841 in 2
2RiceAmerican Athletic1-0·Power 12.99 (15)·Gap +47.01·▼20Ranked 2. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 2 and 119 of 136 in 90% of them.0.1721 in 1
3LSUSEC1-0·Power 14.62 (10)·Gap +45.38·▼2Ranked 3. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 2 and 118 of 136 in 90% of them.0.1491 in 1
4Georgia TechACC1-0·Power 14.96 (9)·Gap +45.04·▼15Ranked 4. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 3 and 119 of 136 in 90% of them.0.1441 in 1
5AuburnSEC1-0·Power 15.92 (7)·Gap +44.08·▼5Ranked 5. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 2 and 117 of 136 in 90% of them.0.1321 in 1
6WyomingMountain West1-0·Power 17.08 (6)·Gap +42.92·▼30Ranked 6. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 3 and 120 of 136 in 90% of them.0.1181 in 1
7Mississippi StateSEC1-0·Power 20.45 (5)·Gap +39.55·▼6Ranked 7. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 5 and 116 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0841 in 1
8CaliforniaACC1-0·Power 20.89 (4)·Gap +39.11·▼25Ranked 8. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 5 and 117 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0801 in 1
9Iowa StateBig 122-0·Power 12.20 (21)·Gap +47.80·▲7Ranked 9. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 5 and 88 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0761 in 1
10NebraskaBig Ten1-0·Power 4.75 (60)·Gap +55.25·▲1Ranked 10. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 9 and 127 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0691 in 1
11UtahBig 121-0·Power 23.50 (3)·Gap +36.50·▼9Ranked 11. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 5 and 16 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0601 in 1
12TempleAmerican Athletic1-0·Power 24.59 (2)·Gap +35.41·▼71Ranked 12. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 7 and 17 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0531 in 1
13UNLVMountain West2-0·Power 6.23 (53)·Gap +53.77·▼14Ranked 13. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 11 and 87 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0461 in 1
14TCUBig 121-0·Power 26.68 (1)·Gap +33.32·▼11Ranked 14. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 9 and 18 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0411 in 1
15South CarolinaSEC1-0·Power 9.49 (40)·Gap +50.51·▼22Ranked 15. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 11 and 127 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0401 in 1
16TennesseeSEC1-0·Power 12.22 (20)·Gap +47.78·▼25Ranked 16. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 13 and 29 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0281 in 1
17MiamiACC1-0·Power -4.65 (105)·Gap +64.65·▲16Ranked 17. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 17 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0261 in 1
18Washington StatePac-121-0·Power -4.44 (104)·Gap +64.44·▼29Ranked 18. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 18 and 134 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0251 in 1
19Wake ForestACC1-0·Power -4.16 (103)·Gap +64.16·▼4Ranked 19. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 20 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0241 in 1
20Kent StateMid-American1-0·Power -4.14 (102)·Gap +64.14·▼38Ranked 20. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 18 and 134 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0241 in 1
21RutgersBig Ten1-0·Power -4.07 (100)·Gap +64.07·▼5Ranked 21. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 18 and 134 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0241 in 1
22Northern IllinoisMid-American1-0·Power -4.06 (99)·Gap +64.06·▼37Ranked 22. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 19 and 135 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0241 in 1
23App StateSun Belt1-0·Power 13.79 (13)·Gap +46.21·▼48Ranked 23. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 14 and 31 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0221 in 1
24Ohio StateBig Ten1-0·Power -3.39 (96)·Gap +63.39·▲18Ranked 24. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 18 and 134 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0221 in 1
25KansasBig 122-0·Power 14.98 (8)·Gap +45.02·▼3Ranked 25. The model replayed this schedule 1,000 times, and this team finished between 16 and 53 of 136 in 90% of them.0.0191 in 1

Top 25 of 136. The full table, the résumé column, the schedule receipts and the sort controls arrive with the week 5 launch.

How this works, and where it is weak →

run 8d6a6e80 · published 2026-08-19 23:10:36 UTC · code e215160 · config 1ef7cf23…
q_ref 11.31 (James Madison) · β_w 7 · C 32 · h 17.467 · σ 15.300 · λ₁ 325 · λ₂ 8.0 · k 211.93 · w₁ 0.3486 · w₂ 3.6402
reproduce: uv run cfbpoll rank --season 2025 --through-week 1 --out out/