Data · 2025 through week 16
Take the data.
Every file: what it read, and what it made
The poll’s own output is below with a checksum on every row, and it is not released for download yet. Everything that went into it is, right now, and both are free to reuse: ratings CC BY 4.0, code MIT, no account, no email.
- cfb_schedules_2025.parquet Every 2025 game: who played who, where, and the final score.
- play_by_play_2025.parquet Every snap of every one of those games.
- The whole archive, 2021 through 2025 Schedules, plays, crosswalks, and the licence they arrive under.
- _run.jsongit sha, config hash, input manifest hash, timestamps. The receipt.
- model_params.jsonEvery constant this run used. Every week, without exception.
- poll.csvThe published poll as CSV.
- poll.jsonThe published poll: every column, top 25 and all ranked teams.
- rank_intervals.csvThe same rows as CSV.
- rank_intervals.parquetThe bootstrap: 90% rank and rating intervals, 1,000 draws.
- ratings_hindsight.csvThe same rows as CSV.
- ratings_hindsight.parquetEvery week of the season re-scored with the answers the season eventually gave. Week 5 as it looks in January.
- ratings_live.csvThe same rows as CSV, for readers with no parquet reader.
- ratings_live.parquetEvery team in the fit, exactly as the poll published it that week, every layer. Week 5 as it looked in week 5.
Every column behind the projection, team by team.
| # | team | winsown schedule | power ratingsets the order | schedulevalue (rank) | winsone shared schedule | home |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 8.8 | 22.7 | 10.0 (5 of 138) | 9.8 | 7 |
| 2 | Oregon plays a team that moved up from FCS | 9.0 | 21.0 | 7.2 (37 of 138) | 9.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Indiana plays a team that moved up from FCS | 9.0 | 20.7 | 8.2 (23 of 138) | 9.5 | 8 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 9.4 | 20.5 | 5.8 (62 of 138) | 9.5 | 6 |
| 5 | Texas Tech plays a team that moved up from FCS | 9.6 | 19.1 | 3.9 (83 of 138) | 9.2 | 7 |
| 6 | Miami plays a team that moved up from FCS | 9.2 | 19.1 | 4.6 (74 of 138) | 9.2 | 7 |
| 7 | Georgia plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.3 | 17.7 | 8.4 (19 of 138) | 9.0 | 7 |
| 8 | Texas A&M plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.1 | 16.7 | 7.9 (29 of 138) | 8.8 | 7 |
| 9 | BYU plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.4 | 16.6 | 6.8 (45 of 138) | 8.7 | 7 |
| 10 | USC | 7.8 | 16.4 | 9.6 (9 of 138) | 8.7 | 7 |
| 11 | Utah plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.3 | 16.0 | 6.6 (49 of 138) | 8.6 | 7 |
| 12 | Oklahoma | 7.3 | 15.4 | 9.9 (6 of 138) | 8.5 | 6 |
| 13 | Texas | 7.1 | 15.0 | 11.6 (1 of 138) | 8.4 | 7 |
| 14 | Ole Miss plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.6 | 14.6 | 8.7 (15 of 138) | 8.3 | 7 |
| 15 | Alabama plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.5 | 14.6 | 8.6 (17 of 138) | 8.3 | 7 |
| 16 | Vanderbilt plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.6 | 14.4 | 8.4 (20 of 138) | 8.3 | 7 |
| 17 | Washington plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.4 | 14.4 | 9.0 (13 of 138) | 8.3 | 7 |
| 18 | SMU plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.1 | 13.5 | 5.2 (66 of 138) | 8.1 | 7 |
| 19 | Tennessee plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.3 | 13.1 | 7.8 (31 of 138) | 8.0 | 7 |
| 20 | Iowa plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.4 | 12.6 | 6.9 (42 of 138) | 7.9 | 7 |
| 21 | Michigan | 6.9 | 12.6 | 10.6 (2 of 138) | 7.9 | 8 |
| 22 | Boise State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.8 | 12.1 | 6.7 (46 of 138) | 7.8 | 6 |
| 23 | Missouri plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.9 | 11.9 | 8.2 (22 of 138) | 7.7 | 7 |
| 24 | Arizona plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.0 | 11.8 | 8.1 (25 of 138) | 7.7 | 7 |
| 25 | Louisville plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.4 | 11.6 | 6.4 (53 of 138) | 7.7 | 6 |
| 26 | San Diego State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.0 | 11.0 | 4.1 (80 of 138) | 7.6 | 6 |
| 27 | Kansas State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.4 | 11.0 | 5.4 (65 of 138) | 7.6 | 7 |
| 28 | Washington State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.2 | 10.6 | 6.3 (54 of 138) | 7.5 | 5 |
| 29 | Old Dominion plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.0 | 10.4 | 1.6 (122 of 138) | 7.4 | 6 |
| 30 | Illinois plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.5 (34 of 138) | 7.4 | 7 |
| 31 | Penn State | 7.0 | 10.3 | 6.9 (41 of 138) | 7.4 | 7 |
| 32 | Pittsburgh plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.6 | 10.2 | 4.3 (76 of 138) | 7.4 | 7 |
| 33 | North Dakota State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.1 | 10.0 | 0.1 (136 of 138) | 7.3 | 6 |
| 34 | Toledo plays a team that moved up from FCS | 8.3 | 9.9 | 0.5 (132 of 138) | 7.3 | 7 |
| 35 | South Carolina plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.5 | 9.9 | 8.2 (24 of 138) | 7.3 | 7 |
| 36 | Western Michigan plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.7 | 9.9 | 2.8 (101 of 138) | 7.3 | 6 |
| 37 | TCU plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.3 (36 of 138) | 7.3 | 7 |
| 38 | Houston plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.2 | 9.8 | 4.1 (79 of 138) | 7.3 | 6 |
| 39 | Clemson plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.2 | 9.6 | 4.9 (70 of 138) | 7.2 | 7 |
| 40 | South Florida plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.8 | 9.6 | 2.7 (102 of 138) | 7.2 | 7 |
| 41 | NC State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.3 | 9.3 | 4.8 (72 of 138) | 7.2 | 7 |
| 42 | James Madison plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.5 | 9.2 | 2.3 (108 of 138) | 7.1 | 6 |
| 43 | Virginia plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 (90 of 138) | 7.1 | 7 |
| 44 | Florida plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 (12 of 138) | 7.1 | 6 |
| 45 | Arizona State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.4 | 8.8 | 7.0 (38 of 138) | 7.1 | 6 |
| 46 | Texas State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 (56 of 138) | 7.1 | 7 |
| 47 | North Texas plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.1 | 8.7 | 3.6 (88 of 138) | 7.0 | 6 |
| 48 | UTSA plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 (75 of 138) | 7.0 | 6 |
| 49 | Navy plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.0 | 8.5 | 3.9 (84 of 138) | 7.0 | 5 |
| 50 | Army plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.4 | 8.4 | 2.8 (100 of 138) | 7.0 | 6 |
| 51 | Georgia Tech plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.7 | 8.4 | 6.7 (47 of 138) | 7.0 | 7 |
| 52 | Florida State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.3 | 8.3 | 7.9 (30 of 138) | 6.9 | 7 |
| 53 | Auburn plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.0 | 8.1 | 8.0 (27 of 138) | 6.9 | 6 |
| 54 | Northwestern plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.0 | 8.0 | 9.3 (11 of 138) | 6.9 | 7 |
| 55 | LSU plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.0 | 7.9 | 8.5 (18 of 138) | 6.9 | 7 |
| 56 | Minnesota plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.4 | 7.7 | 6.9 (40 of 138) | 6.8 | 7 |
| 57 | Duke plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.3 | 7.3 | 6.1 (55 of 138) | 6.7 | 6 |
| 58 | UNLV | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 (92 of 138) | 6.7 | 6 |
| 59 | Baylor plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.0 | 7.3 | 7.7 (33 of 138) | 6.7 | 6 |
| 60 | East Carolina plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.9 (85 of 138) | 6.6 | 6 |
| 61 | Tulane | 6.4 | 6.9 | 5.1 (68 of 138) | 6.6 | 6 |
| 62 | Ohio plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.3 | 6.8 | 1.0 (131 of 138) | 6.6 | 6 |
| 63 | Nebraska plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.4 | 6.7 | 10.2 (4 of 138) | 6.6 | 7 |
| 64 | Iowa State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.9 (59 of 138) | 6.5 | 7 |
| 65 | Marshall plays a team that moved up from FCS | 7.1 | 6.5 | 1.6 (121 of 138) | 6.5 | 6 |
| 66 | Kansas plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.9 (60 of 138) | 6.5 | 6 |
| 67 | Cincinnati plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.9 (28 of 138) | 6.5 | 7 |
| 68 | Western Kentucky plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 (105 of 138) | 6.5 | 5 |
| 69 | New Mexico plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 (113 of 138) | 6.5 | 6 |
| 70 | Utah State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.6 (48 of 138) | 6.4 | 5 |
| 71 | Wake Forest plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.4 (52 of 138) | 6.4 | 6 |
| 72 | Maryland plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 (61 of 138) | 6.4 | 7 |
| 73 | Memphis plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 (78 of 138) | 6.4 | 6 |
| 74 | Mississippi State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.3 | 5.9 | 9.5 (10 of 138) | 6.4 | 7 |
| 75 | Louisiana Tech plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 (111 of 138) | 6.3 | 6 |
| 76 | Hawai'i | 6.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 (118 of 138) | 6.2 | 6 |
| 77 | Rutgers plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 (63 of 138) | 6.2 | 7 |
| 78 | Arkansas plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.0 | 4.9 | 9.7 (7 of 138) | 6.1 | 7 |
| 79 | Fresno State | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 (64 of 138) | 6.1 | 5 |
| 80 | Miami (OH) plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 (127 of 138) | 6.1 | 6 |
| 81 | Wisconsin plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.7 | 4.4 | 6.0 (57 of 138) | 6.0 | 6 |
| 82 | Colorado plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.3 | 4.3 | 6.8 (43 of 138) | 6.0 | 6 |
| 83 | South Alabama plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.3 | 4.3 | 3.0 (97 of 138) | 6.0 | 6 |
| 84 | California plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 (73 of 138) | 6.0 | 7 |
| 85 | Troy plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 (94 of 138) | 6.0 | 6 |
| 86 | Louisiana plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 (123 of 138) | 5.9 | 6 |
| 87 | UConn plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.9 (116 of 138) | 5.9 | 7 |
| 88 | UCF plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.9 | 3.8 | 4.9 (69 of 138) | 5.9 | 7 |
| 89 | Jacksonville State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 (129 of 138) | 5.9 | 6 |
| 90 | Kentucky plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.7 | 3.7 | 10.4 (3 of 138) | 5.9 | 7 |
| 91 | Central Michigan plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 (103 of 138) | 5.8 | 6 |
| 92 | Delaware plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.3 | 3.4 | 2.2 (112 of 138) | 5.8 | 6 |
| 93 | Air Force plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 (107 of 138) | 5.7 | 7 |
| 94 | Florida International plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.4 (133 of 138) | 5.7 | 6 |
| 95 | West Virginia plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.5 | 2.8 | 6.6 (50 of 138) | 5.7 | 7 |
| 96 | Southern Miss plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.7 | 2.7 | 3.6 (87 of 138) | 5.6 | 6 |
| 97 | UCLA | 5.0 | 2.7 | 8.1 (26 of 138) | 5.6 | 7 |
| 98 | Liberty plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.6 | 2.6 | -0.0 (137 of 138) | 5.6 | 6 |
| 99 | Florida Atlantic plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.6 | 2.5 | 4.0 (81 of 138) | 5.6 | 6 |
| 100 | Michigan State | 4.5 | 2.5 | 9.6 (8 of 138) | 5.6 | 7 |
| 101 | Akron plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 (126 of 138) | 5.5 | 6 |
| 102 | Kennesaw State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 (120 of 138) | 5.5 | 6 |
| 103 | Purdue plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.6 | 1.8 | 8.7 (16 of 138) | 5.4 | 7 |
| 104 | North Carolina plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.4 | 1.8 | 8.7 (14 of 138) | 5.4 | 6 |
| 105 | Georgia Southern plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.5 | 1.7 | 3.7 (86 of 138) | 5.4 | 6 |
| 106 | Temple plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.5 | 1.7 | 4.9 (71 of 138) | 5.4 | 7 |
| 107 | UAB plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 (91 of 138) | 5.4 | 6 |
| 108 | App State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 (104 of 138) | 5.3 | 6 |
| 109 | Arkansas State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 (110 of 138) | 5.3 | 6 |
| 110 | Syracuse plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.5 | 1.1 | 7.3 (35 of 138) | 5.3 | 6 |
| 111 | Missouri State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.4 | 1.0 | 3.6 (89 of 138) | 5.2 | 6 |
| 112 | Virginia Tech plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.8 | 1.0 | 6.0 (58 of 138) | 5.2 | 6 |
| 113 | Stanford plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.2 | 0.5 | 8.3 (21 of 138) | 5.1 | 6 |
| 114 | Wyoming plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 (124 of 138) | 5.1 | 6 |
| 115 | Boston College plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.4 | 0.3 | 7.7 (32 of 138) | 5.1 | 6 |
| 116 | Sacramento State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 (134 of 138) | 5.0 | 6 |
| 117 | Eastern Michigan plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.6 | -0.1 | 1.3 (128 of 138) | 5.0 | 5 |
| 118 | Bowling Green plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.4 | -0.4 | 2.3 (109 of 138) | 4.9 | 6 |
| 119 | Rice plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.7 | -0.4 | 5.2 (67 of 138) | 4.9 | 6 |
| 120 | Coastal Carolina plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.3 | -0.5 | 2.0 (115 of 138) | 4.9 | 6 |
| 121 | Oregon State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 3.9 | -0.7 | 7.0 (39 of 138) | 4.9 | 6 |
| 122 | Nevada plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.0 | -1.0 | 3.0 (96 of 138) | 4.8 | 6 |
| 123 | San José State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.6 | -1.1 | 2.9 (99 of 138) | 4.8 | 7 |
| 124 | Tulsa plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.1 | -1.6 | 1.9 (117 of 138) | 4.6 | 6 |
| 125 | New Mexico State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.0 | -2.0 | 1.8 (119 of 138) | 4.6 | 6 |
| 126 | Buffalo plays a team that moved up from FCS | 5.4 | -2.3 | 0.1 (135 of 138) | 4.5 | 6 |
| 127 | UL Monroe plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.6 | -2.6 | 2.9 (98 of 138) | 4.4 | 6 |
| 128 | Georgia State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.9 | -2.7 | 1.5 (125 of 138) | 4.4 | 6 |
| 129 | Colorado State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 3.5 | -3.0 | 6.8 (44 of 138) | 4.3 | 6 |
| 130 | Northern Illinois plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.3 | -3.1 | 3.4 (93 of 138) | 4.3 | 5 |
| 131 | Middle Tennessee plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.9 | -3.3 | 1.0 (130 of 138) | 4.3 | 6 |
| 132 | Kent State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.1 | -3.5 | 4.2 (77 of 138) | 4.2 | 5 |
| 133 | Sam Houston plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.8 | -3.7 | 2.1 (114 of 138) | 4.2 | 6 |
| 134 | Charlotte plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.2 | -3.7 | 3.9 (82 of 138) | 4.2 | 6 |
| 135 | UTEP plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.5 | -3.9 | 3.1 (95 of 138) | 4.1 | 6 |
| 136 | Ball State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 4.1 | -5.5 | 2.5 (106 of 138) | 3.8 | 5 |
| 137 | Oklahoma State plays a team that moved up from FCS | 3.2 | -6.3 | 6.4 (51 of 138) | 3.7 | 6 |
| 138 | Massachusetts plays a team that moved up from FCS | 3.8 | -10.3 | -0.4 (138 of 138) | 2.9 | 6 |
- This view
- thepoll.ai/cfb-poll/data
- Licence
- Ratings CC BY 4.0, code MIT. No account, no email. terms →
The whole pipeline
game results1,637Who played who, where, and who won. Republished from SportsDataverse, MIT.
play by play212,826The efficiency half of the power rating. Same archive, same licence.
team metadataNames, ids and colours, from collegefootballdata.com, which also supplies the offseason facts the projection runs on.
the offseason tableThe AP preseason ballot is in this block and the model never reads it: it is here only so the projection can be graded against it. Then returning production, the transfer portal and coaching changes, which it does read.
One run, and its receipt
What came outrun61a5fd2c-d879-525c-9d86-f9a8d5caf376
codee215160048bc1e481d5b6b899725c6ac8d394b98
settings1ef7cf23682474f2f7e0693ddacb97f458fa464a357db74e7ed1f7116c7be8be
input archive hashmanifest:fd57f550893e9b909eb3bdab326eea742850a26f7e775c8c8a56b217b4674ead
published2026-08-19T23:18:03+00:00
statuspublished
_run.json
model_params.json
poll.csv
poll.json
rank_intervals.csv
rank_intervals.parquet
ratings_hindsight.csv
ratings_hindsight.parquet
ratings_live.csv
ratings_live.parquet
What it refuses to read.
It rebuilds with the labels stripped out to prove it.
the model
the AP poll
the coaches poll
the committee ranking
recruiting rankings and star ratings
anybody else's rating system
betting lines
conference names
school logos
anything at all from the season being predicted
the conference-name refusal is the one a machine checks before every single build, by rebuilding with the labels stripped out.
Every one was available. The refusals ship as switches you can see are off.
The one hole
Returning production is offense only, because nobody publishes a defensive half. The model says so wherever that number appears.
no returning-production number at all for North Dakota State and Sacramento State, both promoted from FCS this season, and their rows are marked
One command
No clone, no account, no API key. This one reads the games that went in.
duckdb -c "SELECT week, home_team, home_points, away_team, away_points FROM 'https://github.com/vyhlidal/cfb-poll/releases/download/archive-v1/cfb_schedules_2025.parquet' WHERE season = 2025 ORDER BY week LIMIT 10"
run 61a5fd2c-d879-525c-9d86-f9a8d5caf376 · code e215160048bc1e481d5b6b899725c6ac8d394b98 · settings 1ef7cf23682474f2f7e0693ddacb97f458fa464a357db74e7ed1f7116c7be8be · published 2026-08-19T23:18:03+00:00
Licensing
The inputs are an MIT-licensed archive.
The ratings and rankings here: CC BY 4.0
Everything this project computes and publishes is released under CC BY 4.0. Share and adapt it, including commercially, with credit and a link. Attribution: Ratings from cfb-poll (https://github.com/vyhlidal/cfb-poll), CC BY 4.0. This project picked attribution over public domain for one reason: a ranking that travels without its methodology is exactly the thing this project exists to replace.
Upstream inputs: SportsDataverse, MIT
The input archive is republished from SportsDataverse under the MIT license. Everything else on this site depends on that: it means a stranger can reproduce every ranking this project has ever published with no API key, no account, and no permission from anyone.
Code: MIT
The pipeline is MIT licensed. See LICENSE in the repository.
Data: College Football Data
Some inputs come from collegefootballdata.com, whose terms say attribution is not required but strongly encouraged. It is owed and it costs a line. CFBD supplied data and supplied no rights in any trademark.